Dry Bulk Weekly Roundup: Commodity Resilience Supports Freight Sentiment

Iron Ore: While iron ore futures softened on macro concerns, Vale flagged stable Chinese demand and a 20% m-o-m jump in steel output. Capesize Brazil–China (C3) fixtures climbed to $18.50–$19.20/mt, underlining resilient ore volumes and healthy tonne-mile demand in the South Atlantic.

Coal: Indonesia’s attempt to impose the new HBA benchmark for export pricing has seen limited uptake, as Chinese buyers favour the more transparent and widely used ICI index. Weak import demand and elevated port inventories in China have further undercut Indonesia’s pricing leverage, with March coal shipments to China falling 9% y-o-y. Despite soft fundamentals, tight tonnage in Southeast Asia saw Ultramax vessels fixed in the mid-teens, with one prompt unit reportedly securing above $20,000 DoP Vietnam via a Sumatra–India run.

Ukrainian Grain: Grain exports year-to-date are down 14% y-o-y due to continued war-related disruptions, although April volumes rose 60% y-o-y to 2mln tonnes. Supramax grain tonnage in the Black Sea faces limited repositioning options due to reduced export volumes, while Mediterranean area sees more tonnage focused on regular clinker trades.

US Corn: Corn net longs eased while soybean positions strengthened. Grain flows picked up following the easing of tariff concerns. Panamax transatlantic rates rose sharply to ~$11,000/day, supported by renewed export demand ex-US Gulf. Supramax fronthaul from the USG fixed at approximately $17,000/day.

The Panamax 5TC assessed at $12,555/day on 29 April, rebounded from April’s low of $10,600/day. Despite the uptick, this marks a 25% decline y-o-y from $16,700/day. The Supramax 10TC followed a similar trajectory, settling at $10,296/day — up modestly from recent lows but still 35% down y-o-y from $16,000/day. Capesize performance remains split, supported by strong Brazil and West Africa–China flows but tempered by subdued activity in the North Atlantic. Drawdowns in base metal inventories, resilient grain flows, and easing trade tensions continue to provide short-term support for freight rates. For more dry bulk insights, contact your BRS Broker or email: research@brsbrokers.com