Ammonia in August

The ammonia market in August was again limited in both the west and the east. In the west, some issues in Trinidad kept supply limited and as last month, prices inched, even with HH natural gas prices dropping on the month. In the east, the lack of supply did not affect prices as much, likely due to weak demand in the far east.

In Europe, natural gas prices rose to $13/MMbtu from $11/MMbtu in July and imports into Europe were reduced to a total of 245kt. Exports out of the Ust-Luga terminal dropped considerably on the month to 27kt after reaching a two-month high in July at 51kt. The move was done on the Eco Wizard that head into BASF Antwerp.

Algerian liftings improved in August reaching 86kt compared to 68kt in July, but still below the 118kt and 113kt reported in June and May respectively.

Trinidad’s liftings continued improving m-o-m, despite supply gas reductions that were extended. August saw a total of 380kt, a 48% increase from July. Yara accounted for 99kt, Koch for 113kt and Nutrien for 168kt of the total exports.

The ammonia market in the US was steady in August from July. Morocco has been the main receiver for the past four months. Supply from the Middle East increased in August and no outages were reported. The region covered demand for both sides of the Suez. India was the main receiver with 169kt, followed by Morocco and South Korea with 52kt and 51kt, respectively. Exports out of the region reached 7 months highs at 443kt. As usual, Saudi Arabia was the main exporter.

In Egypt, lack of supply due to gas constraints have kept exports low. EBIC and Abu Qir plats have restarted, and we might see an improvement in supply. The 19kt shipment that was observed was on the Seashine heading to Gabes Ammonia Terminal.