Grey Fleet Continues to Grow Under Sanctions

The BRS Weekly Tanker Newsletter was cited in TradeWinds and Splash 24/7 regarding the impact of sanctions on the growth of the grey fleet. Access the full articles here:

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/sanctions-policy-driving-dark-fleet-growth-says-brs/2-1-1853491 https://splash247.com/grey-fleet-grows-faster-than-enforcement-can-keep-up/

Western sanctions by the US, UK, and EU may be fueling the expansion of the grey tanker fleet. In 2025, around 30 ships per month have shifted from mainstream trading into Russian or Iranian business, as some buyers of sanctioned oil prefer non-sanctioned tonnage. The grey fleet - which we define as vessels engaging in illicit trading, some of which may be sanctioned - now represents 18.2% of global oil tanker tonnage.

BRS data shows the sanctioned tanker count has surged to 886 from 191 a year ago, while the grey fleet has grown to 1,140 ships of 3,000 Dwt and above. The EU and UK’s joint dynamic price cap on Russian crude is set to fall from $60/bbl to $47.60/bbl in September. The sharp discount to current market prices will make it less viable for mainstream owners to lift Russian cargoes under the cap, pushing more operators towards the grey fleet to continue trading.

Aframaxes remain the workhorses for Russian trade, but old VLCCs and Suezmaxes could gain value if US pressure on Iran intensifies. With Russian and Iranian supply expected to remain strong through 2025, demand for such grey fleet vessels is likely to stay firm.

The expansion of the grey fleet has also largely curbed demolition, with many tankers over 15 years old being sold for further illicit trading rather than being scrapped. This prolongs the lifespan of high-risk older units which raises operational and environmental risks. However, BRS data shows that 15 grey fleet tankers have been demolished in 2024-25, including 8 sanctioned tankers, demonstrating that some breakers yards have risked running afoul of regulations.